[The American Years]

Thursday, January 24, 2008

Hillary is the New Gay Marriage

First off, the structure "_______ is the new _________" has jumped the shark. It's also been thrown under the bus, and has been there and done that.

I'm not going to preach or proselytize, or even prognosticate or prestidigitate. I'd rather peruse my own proboscis.

This is not a political blog. Keep repeating that.

In 2004 Gay Marriage elected GW Bush, like him or not. Here's the way I figure. A divisive "true threat" was imagined and fabricated, and it got people who believe strongly about it to vote. For and against. Turns out there were more people who held strong opinions on it who were for GW Bush than against him.

Here's the idea: Pick an issue that people within your opponent's support crowd don't universally agree on. Make the candidates decide which half of their supporters they want to alienate. Gay Marriage was done to the Democratic ticket in 2004. Evolution was attempted here to try to divide the Republicans, but it didn't really work. Wolf Blitzer (one of the five W's of high-school journalism) asked Republicans at a debate to raise their hands if they believe in evolution. Not a lot of room there for a nuanced response. Answer one way you're a druidic potsmoking pagan lefty, answer the other way and you're Pat Robertson, only moreso, and you might not believe in gravity or photosynthesis either.

I think they should have asked the candidates if they believed in Santa Claus. Would they dare alienate the kid vote?

This is not a political blog.

(Side note: My favorite recent quote about the would-be evolution debate (paraphrased): "Scientists are asking for one free miracle. They say 'Give us one free miracle and we can explain the rest.' The free miracle they want is that all time, space, energy and matter, and all the laws that govern their interaction seem to have sprung from a singularity, before which there was no time, space, energy or matter. Give them that miracle, and they're happy to explain the rest." -Rupert Sheldrake)

So I'm not sure who fabricated the gay marriage issue, looking to drive people to the polls, but GW Bush won the election because of it. Like-minded people came out strong on that issue, and pull their levers for Bush while they just happened to be in the booth to keep the gays from getting married. (Because you know, once they're married, they might start having relations.) Have you noticed the the gay marriage issue is not around right now, and hasn't been around since... around 2005? Curious.

So what's the issue this year? This time the Republicans don't have to look far, or fabricate an issue at all. I think it's Hillary Clinton. Normal, sensible people get politically passionate about her. Mostly against. She inspires people toward voting against her. I'm not sure why, but it's as sure as the turn of the earth. She's the love her or hate her candidate, with very little room for liking her.

Mark my words. One year from today we'll be swearing in President John McCain.

Here's how it will unfold. McCain gets the republican nomination. He's normal, has integrity, and is likable. None of the others have all three. Hillary gets the democratic. (I can offer no explanation of this.) McCain wins. The Democrats find a way to have a pro-Iraq war candidate beat them when the country is (or was) enormously anti-war.

I don't have anything against John McCain. I was ready to vote for him in 2000 had he received the nomination on the Republican side.

By the way, this is not a political blog. I just need to get my comment rate up higher. Also, for some reason I can't upload photos of the Japanese New Year's cards I wanted to share with you. I'll try again soon.

Next post: The Superbowl. Soap Opera with cheerleaders, and why you shouldn't care (if you still do).

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